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Lifts in Africa … the new growth trends

What is the elevator market in Africa? It is not easy to answer this question because there are no updated data. The industry largest source, the Elevator World 2017 Global Statistic Report, merely reports that in 2000 (!) there were 800 installations in Kenya, 320 in Zambia, and 140 in Uganda. Today however, a method can be envisaged for estimating markets on the basis of economic and demographic data. In particular lifts are installed in buildings of varying heights, and the ratio of the number of lifts to the height of the building is also based on the country per capita. Some African countries have average urban densities similar to India or the Philippines ones (Nigeria, Zambia, R. D. Congo), i.e. around 15,000 inhabitants per km2, while others have intermediate values (Kenya, Tanzania), and Ethiopia and Uganda much lower. In Africa, there are dense cities that already have centres with high skylines, such as Abidjan, Lagos, Luanda, Nairobi, Dar Es Salaam, and Addis Ababa. Luanda in Angola already has an urban density similar to Dhaka in Bangladesh (over 40,000 inhabitants/km2), and urban income slightly higher: this affects the size of the lift fleet. In particular, the markets that will increase most will be Nigeria and Ethiopia, followed by Angola, Sudan (now at risk because isolated), Tanzania, Kenya, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Democratic Republic of Congo (except for further civil wars), and Cameroon, which are those where today the large multinationals have already located their own subsidiaries or large distributors. For oil countries, such as Nigeria and Angola, the evolution of oil prices will be very important.In the following table (source Elevatori Magazine) the urban population in thousands, WB 2017 data, urban density per km, Wikipedia 2018, urban GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (u.p.c.p.p.p. GDP), IMF data, combination of u.p.c.p.p.p GDP increase and urban population increase in %, revision of UN forecasts from 2015 to 2020.